A contribution to multi-criteria decision making in sustainable energy management based on fuzzy and qualitative reasoning

Energy problems are serious problems caused by limited resources and by human activity such as deforestation, water pollution and various other long-term practices that have environmental impact which produces global warming and climate change. These complex problems usually involve multiple conflicting criteria and multiple decision makers. They require the use of multi-criteria decision-making methods to evaluate different types of variables with respect to sustainability factors addressing conflicting economic, technological, social and environmental aspects. These factors, especially social ones, are not always precise, as imprecision and uncertainty are features of the real world. Therefore, in order to provide useful data from experts' assessments, in this thesis a new multi-criteria decision-making method, as a useful tool in energy planning, is presented. This method supports decision makers in all stages of the decision-making process with uncertain values. An exhaustive literature review on multi-criteria decision analysis and energy planning has been conducted in this thesis. First, the in-depth study of criteria and indicators in the energy planning area is presented. Some well-known multi-criteria decision-making methods and their applications are introduced. In these problems, it is often difficult to obtain exact numerical values for some criteria and indicators. In order to overcome this shortcoming, qualitative reasoning techniques integrated with multi-criteria decision-making methods are capable of representing uncertainty, emulating skilled humans, and handling vague situations. This study proposes a Qualitative TOPSIS (Q-TOPSIS) method, which is a new method for ranking multi-criteria alternatives in group decision making. This new method, in its first step, takes into account qualitative data provided by the decision makers' individual linguistic judgments on the performance of alternatives with respect to each criterion, without any previous aggregation or normalization. Then, in its second step, it incorporates the judgments of decision makers into the modified TOPSIS method to generate a complete ranking of alternatives. Three applications of the proposed method in energy planning are presented. In the first case, the application of the Q-TOPSIS method in a case study of renewable energy alternatives selection is presented. These alternatives are ranked and the proposed method is compared with the modified fuzzy TOPSIS method. A simulation of thirty scenarios using different weights demonstrates that the simplicity and interpretability of Q-TOPSIS provides a general improvement over classic TOPSIS in the case of ordinal assessments. Second, a real case study in a social framework to find an appropriate place for wind farm location in Catalonia is presented. In this case different alternatives were proposed based on social actors' preferences for the location of the desired wind farms in a region between the counties of Urgell and Conca de Barbera. Ranking alternatives concludes that an alternative combining two different initial projects is the best option. Using the proposed method to handle a high degree of conflict in group decision making involving multi-dimensional concepts simplified the experts' measurements. Finally, an application to energy efficiency in buildings using the SEMANCO (Semantic tools for carbon reduction in urban planning) platform is presented in order to assess the energy performance and CO2 emissions of projected urban plans at the city level in Manresa. In this case study, an application of Q-TOPSIS helps decision makers to rank different projects with respect to multi-granular quantitative and qualitative criteria and offers outputs which are very easy for decision makers to understand.Los problemas de la energía son problemas graves causados por los recursos limitados y las actividades humanas como la deforestación, contaminación del agua y otras prácticas con efectos a largo plazo. Estas prácticas tienen un gran impacto ambiental y dan lugar al efecto invernadero, que ocasiona el calentamiento global y cambio climático. Los problemas complejos implican generalmente múltiples criterios contradictorios y múltiples decisores. Requieren el uso de métodos toma de decisiones multicriterio para evaluar diferentes tipos de variables con respecto a factores de sostenibilidad, incluyendo aspectos conflictivos económicos, tecnológicos, sociales y ambientales. Estos factores, especialmente los sociales, no siempre son precisos, dado que la imprecisión y la incertidumbre son características del mundo real. Por lo tanto, con el fin de proporcionar datos útiles a partir de evaluaciones de expertos, en esta tesis se presenta un nuevo método de toma de decisiones multicriterio, como una herramienta útil en la planificación de la energía. Este método permite a los decisores utilizar valores con imprecisión en todas las etapas de la toma de decisiones. En esta tesis se ha realizado una revisión exhaustiva de la literatura sobre el análisis de la decisión multicriterio y la planificación de la energía. En primer lugar, se presenta el estudio a fondo de los criterios e indicadores en el área de planificación de la energía. Se introducen algunos de los métodos más conocidos de toma de decisiones multicriterio y sus aplicaciones. En estos problemas, a menudo es difícil obtener valores numéricos exactos para algunos criterios e indicadores. Para superar esta deficiencia, la integración de técnicas de razonamiento cualitativo en métodos de decisión multicriterio permite representar la incertidumbre, emular el trabajo de seres humanos cualificados y manejar situaciones vagas. Este estudio propone un método TOPSIS cualitativo (Q-TOPSIS), que es un nuevo método de ranking de alternativas para la toma de decisiones multicriterio en grupo. Este nuevo método, toma en cuenta los datos cualitativos proporcionados por los juicios lingüísticos individuales de los decisores sin necesidad de previa agregación o normalización. Se presentan tres aplicaciones del método propuesto en la planificación de la energía. En el primer caso, se presenta la aplicación del método Q-TOPSIS en un caso práctico de selección de alternativas de energías renovables. Una simulación de treinta escenarios utilizando diferentes pesos demuestra que la simplicidad y la interpretabilidad de Q-TOPSIS proporcionan una mejora general del TOPSIS clásico en el caso de evaluaciones ordinales. En segundo lugar, se presenta un estudio de un caso real para decidir el lugar apropiado para ubicación de parques eólicos en una zona de Cataluña. En este caso, las distintas alternativas fueron propuestas en base a las preferencias de los actores sociales sobre la ubicación de los parques eólicos deseados en una región entre los condados del Urgell y la Conca de Barberà. El ranking obtenido de las alternativas concluye que la mejor opción es una alternativa que combina dos proyectos iniciales diferentes. La utilización del método propuesto para la decisión en grupo permite manejar un alto grado de conflicto entre conceptos multidimensionales y simplifica las mediciones de los expertos. Por último, se presenta una aplicación a la eficiencia de la energía en edificios mediante la plataforma SEMANCO (Herramientas semánticas para la reducción de carbono en la planificación urbana) para evaluar la eficiencia de la energía y las emisiones de CO2 de planes urbanísticos proyectados en la ciudad de Manresa. En este caso estudio, la aplicación de Q-TOPSIS ayuda a los decisores a realizar el ranking de los diferentes proyectos con respecto a criterios cuantitativos y cualitativos multi-granulares y ofrece resultados fácilmente inteligibles para los decisores

Multi-criteria decision making with linguistic labels: a comparison of two methodologies applied to energy planning

This paper compares two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches based on linguistic label assessment. The first approach consists of a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology introduced by Kaya and Kahraman in 2011. The second approach, introduced by Agell et al. in 2012, is based on qualitative reasoning techniques for ranking multi-attribute alternatives in group decision-making with linguistic labels. Both approaches are applied to a case of assessment and selection of the most suitable types of energy in a geographical area.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Finding the most sustainable wind farm sites with a hierarchical outranking decision aiding method

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-017-2590-4This paper considers the problem of finding suitable sites for wind farms in a region of Catalonia (Spain). The evaluation criteria are structured into a hierarchy that identifies several intermediate sub-goals dealing with different points of view. Therefore, the recent ELECTRE-III-H hierarchical multi-criteria analysis method is proposed as a good solution to help decision-makers. This method establishes an order among the set of possible sites for the wind farms for each sub-goal. ELECTRE-III-H aggregates these orders into an overall order using different parameters. The procedure is based on the construction and exploitation of a pairwise outranking relation, following the principles of concordance (i.e. majority rule) and discordance (i.e. respect for the minority opinions). This paper makes two main contributions. First, it contributes to the ELECTRE-III-H method by studying its mathematical properties for the construction of outranking relations. Second, the case study is solved and its results show that we can effectively represent and manage the overall influence of the various criteria on the global result at different levels of the hierarchy. The paper compares different scenarios with strict, normal, and optimistic preference, indifference and veto thresholds. Results show that the best site differs for technical, economic, environmental, and social intermediate criteria. Therefore, the best overall solution changes depending on the preference and veto thresholds fixed at the intermediate level of the hierarchy.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Influential factors in water planning for sustainable tourism destinations

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Journal of Sustainable Tourism on 28 Feb 2018, available online at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09669582.2018.1433183."Many destinations are implementing various water management alternatives to diminish the environmental impacts of tourism and increase sustainability. These efforts toward sustainability can be understood as part of corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies implemented by tourism destinations. This paper is focused on the tourism destination of the Costa Brava (Catalonia, Spain) and proposes a method for selecting a list of influential factors in water management for sustainable tourism destinations by considering stakeholder preferences for technical, economic, social, political, and environmental factors. A new qualitative Delphi technique is used to identify a set of qualitative and quantitative factors by surveying eight stakeholders (six water management experts and two hotel managers). In addition, the study presents the weight for each of the influential factors that decision-makers – water planners, policy-makers, tourism destination managers and hotel managers – can use in assessing water management alternatives. Although research to date has addressed many aspects of responsible tourism, there is little literature on the importance of water management in responsible strategies for tourism destinations. This paper contributes to a more efficient selection of CSR strategies in tourism destinations by proposing a new methodology for identifying key factors for assessing sustainable solutions for water problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Multi-criteria decision making with linguistic labels: a comparison of two methodologies applied to energy planning

This paper compares two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches based on linguistic label assessment. The first approach consists of a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology introduced by Kaya and Kahraman in 2011. The second approach, introduced by Agell et al. in 2012, is based on qualitative reasoning techniques for ranking multi-attribute alternatives in group decision-making with linguistic labels. Both approaches are applied to a case of assessment and selection of the most suitable types of energy in a geographical area.Peer Reviewe

Finding the most sustainable wind farm sites with a hierarchical outranking decision aiding method

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-017-2590-4This paper considers the problem of finding suitable sites for wind farms in a region of Catalonia (Spain). The evaluation criteria are structured into a hierarchy that identifies several intermediate sub-goals dealing with different points of view. Therefore, the recent ELECTRE-III-H hierarchical multi-criteria analysis method is proposed as a good solution to help decision-makers. This method establishes an order among the set of possible sites for the wind farms for each sub-goal. ELECTRE-III-H aggregates these orders into an overall order using different parameters. The procedure is based on the construction and exploitation of a pairwise outranking relation, following the principles of concordance (i.e. majority rule) and discordance (i.e. respect for the minority opinions). This paper makes two main contributions. First, it contributes to the ELECTRE-III-H method by studying its mathematical properties for the construction of outranking relations. Second, the case study is solved and its results show that we can effectively represent and manage the overall influence of the various criteria on the global result at different levels of the hierarchy. The paper compares different scenarios with strict, normal, and optimistic preference, indifference and veto thresholds. Results show that the best site differs for technical, economic, environmental, and social intermediate criteria. Therefore, the best overall solution changes depending on the preference and veto thresholds fixed at the intermediate level of the hierarchy.Peer Reviewe

Decision making under uncertainty using a qualitative TOPSIS method for selecting sustainable energy alternatives

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13762-016-0982-7Multi-criteria decision-making methods support decision makers in all stages of the decision-making process by providing useful data. However, criteria are not always certain as uncertainty is a feature of the real world. MCDM methods under uncertainty and fuzzy systems are accepted as suitable techniques in conflicting problems that cannot be represented by numerical values, in particular in energy analysis and planning. In this paper, a modified TOPSIS method for multi-criteria group decision-making with qualitative linguistic labels is proposed. This method addresses uncertainty considering different levels of precision. Each decision maker’s judgment on the performance of alternatives with respect to each criterion is expressed by qualitative linguistic labels. The new method takes into account linguistic data provided by the decision makers without any previous aggregation. Decision maker judgments are incorporated into the proposed method to generate a complete ranking of alternatives. An application in energy planning is presented as an illustrative case example in which energy policy alternatives are ranked. Seven energy alternatives under nine criteria were evaluated according to the opinion of three environmental and energy experts. The weights of the criteria are determined by fuzzy AHP, and the alternatives are ranked using qualitative TOPSIS. The proposed approach is compared with a modified fuzzy TOPSIS method, showing the advantages of the proposed approach when dealing with linguistic assessments to model uncertainty and imprecision. Although the new approach requires less cognitive effort to decision makers, it yields similar results.Peer Reviewe

Influential factors in water planning for sustainable tourism destinations

Many destinations are implementing various water management alternatives to diminish the environmental impacts of tourism and increase sustainability. These efforts toward sustainability can be understood as part of corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies implemented by tourism destinations. This paper is focused on the tourism destination of the Costa Brava (Catalonia, Spain) and proposes a method for selecting a list of influential factors in water management for sustainable tourism destinations by considering stakeholder preferences for technical, economic, social, political, and environmental factors. A new qualitative Delphi technique is used to identify a set of qualitative and quantitative factors by surveying eight stakeholders (six water management experts and two hotel managers). In addition, the study presents the weight for each of the influential factors that decision-makers – water planners, policy-makers, tourism destination managers and hotel managers – can use in assessing water management alternatives. Although research to date has addressed many aspects of responsible tourism, there is little literature on the importance of water management in responsible strategies for tourism destinations. This paper contributes to a more efficient selection of CSR strategies in tourism destinations by proposing a new methodology for identifying key factors for assessing sustainable solutions for water problems.Peer Reviewe

Using linguistic descriptions with multi-criteria decision aid approaches in urban energy systems

Multi-Criteria Decision Aid (MCDA) methods include various collections of mathematical techniques related to decision support systems in non-deterministic environments to support such applications as facility management, disaster management and urban planning. This paper applies MCDA approaches based on qualitative reasoning techniques with linguistic labels assessment. The aim of this method is ranking multi-attribute alternatives in group decision-making with qualitative labels. Finally this method is applied to a case of urban planning in selection of the less energy consumption project in a geographical area in Catalonia.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Using linguistic descriptions with multi-criteria decision aid approaches in urban energy systems

Multi-Criteria Decision Aid (MCDA) methods include various collections of mathematical techniques related to decision support systems in non-deterministic environments to support such applications as facility management, disaster management and urban planning. This paper applies MCDA approaches based on qualitative reasoning techniques with linguistic labels assessment. The aim of this method is ranking multi-attribute alternatives in group decision-making with qualitative labels. Finally this method is applied to a case of urban planning in selection of the less energy consumption project in a geographical area in Catalonia.Peer Reviewe